Don't ignore the obvious when handicapping

While playing tonight and chatting with other players in the chatroom something became obvious to me. Sometimes you just can't ignore the obvious. If you had a sure fire way of hitting the winner in a race 41% of the time, with NO effort on your part...why wouldn't you? I don't know the answer to that question.

Most tracks have updated stats on their website so you can check post position wins. If you use software like Quickdog you can also keep these stats yourself. If you check out the most recent stats for Palm Beach located here, you can do a little math and follow along with me.

The stats for the 660 races show that the 1 and 2 position combined win 41% of the time. Yep, with no other factors you can hit the winner 41% of the time at PB in these races by simply playing the 1 and 2 dog to win.

I was playing MG tonight (where the stats are similar) and I hit some pretty nice winners and trifecta's by using this rule. In one of the races the 2 dog was around 15/1 and the 1 dog was 7/1. The 1 dog won and the trifecta paid handsomely.

The point is, don't go reinventing the wheel. not just in this instance, but in any instance where you KNOW something. Do what you know!

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