Win Betting For Profits
“Keeping it simple”
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Mardi Gras has taken the lead in the greyhound racing industry by offering the lowest 'house take' on the simplest wager of them all, the WIN bet. If you are like most players then you have turned to playing exotic wagers to extract profits from shrinking pools. Since the simple win bet has become a historic relic I think it is worth learning the basic principles of this wager. As with anything in life there are many way to approach something. What follows is the way I approach this wager successfully in the simplest terms possible. Your individual mileage will vary.
Step 1
I look through the program for each night and try and determine what races I think I can pick a winner in, and which races I think I can't. As I teach my players with all other types of wagers, play the races you think you can be successful with. Leave the others alone.
Step 1
I look through the program for each night and try and determine what races I think I can pick a winner in, and which races I think I can't. As I teach my players with all other types of wagers, play the races you think you can be successful with. Leave the others alone.
It varies from night to night but on average I would say I come up with 8 or 10 playable races of the 16 that are offered.
Step 2
Find more than 1 winner. Some of the races I don't play have a pretty obvious winner. While most players will choose to put their money into these races I usually choose to pass. When you have a monster greyhound that will most likely win 70% of the time or more you will rarely get the odds needed to play this puppy. Rather than try to bet against him I will just pass this race altogether.
The races I look for have a couple of dogs that I think have a decent shot at winning. All races are dependent on something happening for a greyhound to be successful. In most cases, if that 'thing' doesn't happen then there is another greyhound likely to win when that happens.
Let's say I like a pretty speedy puppy with great early speed that is running from the dreaded 6 box. Generally speaking this puppy will HAVE to rely on that early foot to clear the turn. And in fact this dog will probably be successful a good portion of the time. In the same race there is a classy solid grade dropper. Not a real speedy dropper, but one with the moxy to dig in and win. So I have two likely winners. Which one do I play?
The races I look for have a couple of dogs that I think have a decent shot at winning. All races are dependent on something happening for a greyhound to be successful. In most cases, if that 'thing' doesn't happen then there is another greyhound likely to win when that happens.
Let's say I like a pretty speedy puppy with great early speed that is running from the dreaded 6 box. Generally speaking this puppy will HAVE to rely on that early foot to clear the turn. And in fact this dog will probably be successful a good portion of the time. In the same race there is a classy solid grade dropper. Not a real speedy dropper, but one with the moxy to dig in and win. So I have two likely winners. Which one do I play?
Step 3
Play the puppy giving you the best return on your investment. I'm throwing some hypothetical numbers at your now, but in some races this is pretty close to what you may see. Your early speedster will probably win the race 35% of the time and let's say the classy dog wins it 25% of the time.
If the pools are laying you 6/5 on your speed dog and 6/1 on your class dog, then the smart money will go on the class dog. So this is the dog you will see me bet every time. If for some reason the speed dog goes off at 5/2 or 3/1 then I'll take him. Winning isn't everything. Getting paid the right amount when you win is. I never care about hitting 5 out of 10 races. I care about having more money when I'm finished playing than when I started.
If the pools are laying you 6/5 on your speed dog and 6/1 on your class dog, then the smart money will go on the class dog. So this is the dog you will see me bet every time. If for some reason the speed dog goes off at 5/2 or 3/1 then I'll take him. Winning isn't everything. Getting paid the right amount when you win is. I never care about hitting 5 out of 10 races. I care about having more money when I'm finished playing than when I started.
Final thoughts
Playing Mardi Gras 1/27/11 I had a few races that I like on the two cards. I got a big winner in race 2 with the #6 Honorary Pilot. I liked the 8 and the 6 for this race. The 8 was around 2/1 when I made my bet. The 6 was at 11/1. So I bet the 6.
Playing Mardi Gras 1/27/11 I had a few races that I like on the two cards. I got a big winner in race 2 with the #6 Honorary Pilot. I liked the 8 and the 6 for this race. The 8 was around 2/1 when I made my bet. The 6 was at 11/1. So I bet the 6.
6 won and paid $24.40. Nice hit!
Race 5 – I liked the 7 and 6. The 7 was sitting at 9/5 when I made my wager. The 6 was 5/1. So I played the 6. #6 Paw Jive Willie won and paid $13.00
Race 5 – I liked the 7 and 6. The 7 was sitting at 9/5 when I made my wager. The 6 was 5/1. So I played the 6. #6 Paw Jive Willie won and paid $13.00
Those were the ONLY two races I won on the first half of the card.
2 for 8. 25% win percentage. Nothing to write home about.
I played all 8 races on that card. Base wager of $2 comes up to $16 wagered. Payoffs for my two winners was $37.40. That comes out to $21.40 profit and 133% ROI.
2 for 8. 25% win percentage. Nothing to write home about.
I played all 8 races on that card. Base wager of $2 comes up to $16 wagered. Payoffs for my two winners was $37.40. That comes out to $21.40 profit and 133% ROI.
That last number is the one I care about. ROI. Return on Investment.
So narrow your races down to the ones you have the best shot of understanding. Then play your picks for value, not win percentage. In the end, I'd be happy going 1 for 20 is the one winner I had paid $80.00!!!
Don't think that happens?
Look at Mardi Gras 1/28/11, late evening card, Race #2.
Look at Mardi Gras 1/28/11, late evening card, Race #2.
6 CL Star Prize $81.80
Now get to work and jump in the Jackpot win pool! Fun and profits are waiting!
Pup
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